Chandigarh: Given the divergent exit polls, perhaps the pollsters in Punjab would have preferred the good old two-party straight contest in Punjab elections at a professional level. Though actual results in the state in the two-party race of 2012 left many a ‘poll scientists’ eating their words, at least the basic probability of the outcome was easier to work on.
With Aam Aadmi Party throwing its hat in the ring, and that too with a force that has led many to believe that they may actually form the next government in the state, this time around the poll equations thrown up by the three-tiered contest has left many a psephologists pulling their hair to arrive at a cogent conclusion.
However, what every pollster is clear about in the Punjab context is the very-2 low probability of SAD-BJP coming to power for the third time. Of the four major exit polls taken into consideration here, none have given the party more than 13 seats ( India TV – C Voter). Now even if we take an error of 100 per cent the party touches a figure of 26 seats, which is way short of the 59 mark (total seats 117) required to form the government. The SAD – BJP tally can, however, act as a spoiler for the number of seats bagged by the other two parties. Given the arithmetic of vote bank politics in Punjab, AAP stands to get lesser seats than predicted if the SAD does end up with more seats. The reverse too stands true in this case. In the best case scenario for the party, the SAD-BJP combine should be hoping to get more than 20 seats, which could put them in a position to have some say in the formation of the new government given the poll predictions for Congress and AAP.
Between the AAP and Congress, the four exit polls (India Today – Axis, India News – MRC, India TV – C Voter, News 24 – Today’s Chanakya) show a huge difference in the probable outcome. Going by the India Today – Axis poll, the people of Punjab are set to give Capt Amarinder another chance to form a government in the state. These polls place the Congress party clearly ahead with 62-71 seats compared to AAP’s 42-51 seats.
But the Captain could be in for two sleepless nights in the run up to the counting day on March 11, going by the exit poll put up by India TV – C Voter, which shows AAP scoring a comfortable victory with 59 – 69 seats. This exit poll shows Congress ending up with 41 – 49 seats.
The INDIA NEWS – MRC poll gives 54 seats each to the AAP and Congress. Interestingly, it gives two seats to the enigma that is ‘Others’ in every elections. In the present Punjab polls the ‘Others’ effectively stand for Ludhiana’s Bains brothers, whose Lok Insaaf Party contested the elections in alliance with AAP. Despite a lowly seven seats, the INDIA NEWS – MRC poll, however, puts the ball in the court of SAD-BJP when it comes to government formation.
The NEWS 24 – Today’s Chanakya predicts an outcome similar to India News-MRC giving 55 seats each to AAP and Congress, and once again puts SAD – BJP (9 seats) in a position critical to formation of the new government.
Moving a step further, if we look at the median average of the four exit polls, we arrive at an outcome that puts Congress at 55 seats with AAP just behind by one seat at 54.
So, have the exit pollsters put us in a position to place our bets on the winners of the Punjab battle? The answer is a big and emphatic NO. In the statistical world of probabilities dealing with huge numbers such as the ones involved in a state elections, a difference of one is no difference at all. It can go either way – we have no choice but to wait another 38 hours or so for the reality to hit home!